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Taking Stock

China's bounce may be short-lived

China's bounce may be short-lived
Published on October 2, 2024
China's bounce may be short-lived

Baillie Gifford China Growth (BGCG), Fidelity China Special Situations (FCSS) and JPMorgan China Growth & Income (JCGI) all recorded impressive share price gains following news that Beijing was implementing new support measures to stimulate domestic growth in the face of the continued property downturn. The investment trusts' gains – an average 17 per cent over five trading days – were achieved alongside a steep rise in volumes, albeit against prevailing technical signals.

If you’re contemplating increasing your regional exposure based on this latest round of remedial measures, caution is probably warranted given the short-lived impact of previous interventions. The value of the MSCI China index shot up by 19 per cent in the days following the announcement, but it’s not immediately obvious why this set of stimulus measures should elicit a more favourable response than those that preceded it.

Short of comprehensive debt restructuring across the property sector, and the moral hazard that entails, it’s doubtful whether the People's Bank of China has enough in its armoury to rekindle demand and alleviate concerns over home deliveries – Chinese cities are still strewn with unfinished housing projects. And the central bank is faced by related challenges, not least of which the indebtedness of the country’s regional banks.

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