We are all geniuses in retrospect. Still, we can confidently say predictions of a housing market slump in 2023 were very wrong. Interest rates rose to levels not seen since 2008, but the housing market remained surprisingly sturdy.
First, we should give the forecasters some credit. House price data is a fiendishly tricky thing, and not everyone is looking at the same numbers. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) measures prices at completion; Halifax and Nationwide use data from their mortgage customers; Rightmove measures asking prices; and Savills measures house value, which ignores transactions entirely. Still, the consensus assumption from many experts was that over the 12 months to the end of 2023, house prices would sink by between 5 and 10 per cent on one metric or another.