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Our screen of screens is beating its benchmark

The six-in-one Screen for All Seasons does so for the fourth year in a row
Our screen of screens is beating its benchmarkPublished on March 27, 2023

On one level, modern portfolio theory relies on a complex mathematical model involving calculations for asset weighting, expected returns, risks, capital asset pricing and return variance. On another, it reflects a simple premise, which is that if two portfolios offer the same return, but one carries more risk, investors should prefer the less risky one. Two maxims follow: that increased risk must be rewarded by higher returns, and that any one asset should be seen not for its own risk and reward trade-off, but for how it affects the risk and reward balance of the overall portfolio.

The theory was first conceived in 1952 by the economist Harry Markowitz, who won a Nobel Prize for his work in the field. What is less well known is how its author invested his own cash. Instead of following his method, Markowitz chose to minimise his future regret at large possible stock market losses by splitting his savings equally between bonds and stocks.

As Brian Christian and Tom Griffiths note in Algorithms to Live By, the story could be presented as the Nobel Prize winner’s irrational adoption of a mental shortcut. Instead, Christian and Griffiths write that “it’s precisely because of the complexity of real life that a simple heuristic might in fact be the rational solution”.

Every stock screen is a heuristic. Whittling down a stock market’s myriad choices is a simple strategy to help investors identify companies that meet their criteria.

The problem is that this isn’t always a smart route to a diversified equity portfolio. A screen for ‘value’ stocks, for example, might identify a range of firms of different sizes and in different sectors. But those same results might all be equally highly exposed to a recession, which is why they were all cheap to begin with.

By using multiple screens at the same time, we can try to spread risk and factor concentration. That is one way to think about our Screen for All Seasons, now entering its seventh year, which casts six variously shaped nets over the premium and junior UK markets in a bid to upgrade our heuristic.

ScreenNameTIDMTotal Rtn (25 Apr 2022 - 22 Mar 2023)
GRT EXPNorthbridge IndustrialNBI103.6
GRT EXPH&THAT30.1
GRT EXPIndiviorINDV-13.1
GRT EXPAlpha FXAFX-14.9
GRT EXPDraxDRX-21.3
GRT EXPGresham HouseGHE-22.6
GRT EXPEbiquityEBQ-25.7
GRT EXPNext Fifteen CommunicationsNFC-29.3
GRT EXPCambdge CognitionCOG-31.4
GRT EXPDigitalboxDBOX-33.3
GRT EXP---5.81
BIG RELCompassCPG20.2
BIG RELSDISDI14.6
BIG RELRELXREL10.6
BIG RELAstrazenecaAZN9.6
BIG RELNational GridNG.-7.1
BIG RELTeam 17TM17-8.4
BIG RELCranswickCWK-13.6
BIG RELMacfarlaneMACF-13.7
BIG RELGlaxosmithklineGSK-14.9
BIG RELHilton FoodHFG-40.9
BIG REL---4.35
NEFFContourGlobalGLO37.6
NEFFDunelmDNLM24.3
NEFFAshteadAHT17.9
NEFFAntofagastaANTO7.1
NEFFManEMG3.4
NEFFGateleyGTLY-12.2
NEFFAnglo AmericanAAL-14.3
NEFFComputacenterCCC-26.1
NEFFSafestoreSAFE-27.5
NEFFSegroSGRO-45.0
NEFF---3.47
SAFE YLDME GroupMEGP97.5
SAFE YLDDevroDVO64.7
SAFE YLDMoneysupermarket.comMONY43.9
SAFE YLDContourGlobalGLO37.6
SAFE YLDBae SystemsBA.32.5
SAFE YLDRecordREC27.8
SAFE YLDPets At HomePETS23.1
SAFE YLDKellerKLR-16.5
SAFE YLDPan African ResourcesPAF-21.2
SAFE YLDWatkin JonesWJG-62.8
SAFE YLD--22.68
EV/SALESTP ICAPTCAP34.9
EV/SALESAbrdn China InvestmentACIC4.0
EV/SALESCaledonian TrustCNN1.7
EV/SALESTaylor WimpeyTW.-4.6
EV/SALESCrest NicholsonCRST-12.3
EV/SALESVistryVTY-12.3
EV/SALESBellwayBWY-12.4
EV/SALESNumisNUM-18.1
EV/SALESQuilterQLT-34.1
EV/SALESGem DiamondsGEMD-56.8
EV/SALES---10.99
CAPEME GroupMEGP97.5
CAPEKingfisherKGF11.6
CAPEVistryVTY-12.3
CAPEPaypointPAY-15.0
CAPENumisNUM-18.1
CAPEBTBT.A-20.9
CAPEHalfordsHFD-21.7
CAPENinety OneN91-23.8
CAPEInternational Distribution ServicesIDS-31.4
CAPECurrysCURY-34.7
CAPE---6.88
 FTSE All Share -3.6
 FTSE Aim All Share--21.1
 FTSE All Share/Aim--8.7
 Screen For All Seasons--1.47
Source: Refinitiv Eikon Datastream.

In aggregate, last year’s 60 stock selections delivered a 1.5 per cent negative total return. While nothing special, it marked the fourth year in succession in which the screen has beaten its benchmark, which is a split of the FTSE All-Share and Aim All-Share. Another poor outing for the junior index dragged down the negative total return of the combined indices to 8.7 per cent.

This takes the screen of screen’s total return to 40.5 per cent in the six years it’s been live. Though well ahead of its benchmark’s cumulative 8 per cent return, I’m minded to ignore that delta given Aim’s consistently dilutive effect on the latter’s performance. A better proxy for UK equity performance, the standalone FTSE All-Share, is up a more respectable 24.7 per cent in the period.

While the screens in these pages are intended as a source for further research rather than off-the-shelf portfolios, any real-world attempt to replicate the Screen for All Seasons’ methodology is likely to have stuck more closely to market returns. Indeed, by incorporating a chunky 1.5 per cent annual dealing charge to reflect the portfolio’s numerous and sometimes illiquid holdings, its six-year return drops to 28.3 per cent.

Each of the six screens uses a ranking system to create a selection of 10 stocks. When there are not 10 stocks that meet a screen’s full criteria, a weakened version of the test is employed, and details of any tests failed are given in the accompanying table of stock picks. Full details of the criteria of each screen can be found below along with the ranking methodology. All screens are conducted on all the constituents of the FTSE 350, FTSE All Small and FTSE Aim All-Share, although several screens have tests to remove companies below a certain size.

 

The screens

Great Expectations (Growth and Momentum)

■ EPS forecasts for both the next 12 months and the following 12-month period upgraded by at least 10 per cent over the past year.

■ EPS growth of 10 per cent or more forecast for each of the next two financial years.

■ Share price momentum at least double that of the market over the past year and better than the market over the past six months, three months and one month.

Additional filter

■ The most attractive stocks have been selected based on a combined ranking of EPS upgrades and three-month price momentum. 

Big Reliable (Quality)

■ EPS growth in each of the past five years.

■ Return on equity (RoE) of 12 per cent or more in each of the past five years.

■ Forecast earnings growth in the current financial year and the year after.

■ Gearing of less than 50 per cent, or net debt of less than two times cash profits.

■ Cash conversion (cash from operations as a proportion of operating profits) of 90 per cent or more.

Additional filter

■ 10 largest market caps 

Neff (Growth at a Reasonable Price)

■ Historic price/earnings ratio (PE) below the most expensive quarter of shares and above the cheapest quarter.

■ A lower than median average Neff PEG ratio:

Neff PEG is calculated as the price/earnings (PE) ratio divided by EPS growth (an average of the five-year compound average growth rate and average forecast for the next two years) and historic dividend yield.

■ A five-year EPS compound average growth rate (CAGR) of more than 7.5 per cent, but below 20 per cent (excessive growth can fall off).

■ Average forecast EPS growth for the next two financial years of more than 7.5 per cent.

■ Rising EPS in each of the past two half-year periods.

■ Five-year turnover CAGR of 5 per cent or more (in the long term, earnings growth needs to be based on rising sales).

■ Positive free cash flow in each of the past three years.

Additional filter

■ The most attractive stocks have been selected based on combined ranking of Neff PEG and the EPS growth rate used in the ratio.

Safe Yield (Income)

■ Dividend yield of at least 3 per cent.

■ Dividend cover of at least two times.

■ Interest cover of at least five times.

■ Dividend growth in each of the past three years.

■ Forecast earnings growth in each of the next two financial years.

■ An average return on equity over the past three years of at least 12.5 per cent.

■ Cash conversion (measured as cash from operations as a percentage of operating profit) of over 100 per cent.

■ A market capitalisation of at least £250mn.

■ Beta of 0.75 or less.

Additional filter

■ The most attractive stocks have been selected based on combined ranking of dividend yield and forecast average EPS growth over the next two financial years.

EV/Sales screen (Recovery)

■ EV/Sales of less than 1.

■ Five-year compound average annual sales growth rate of 7 per cent or more.

■ Forecast sales growth in each of the next two financial years.

■ An average operating profit margin of at least 10 per cent over the past five years.

■ Positive free cash flow.

■ Gearing of less than 50 per cent, or net debt of less than two times cash profits.

Additional filter

■ The most attractive stocks have been selected based on combined ranking of EV-to-sales and historic operating margins.

CAPE (Deep Value)

■ Market capitalisation of more than £100mn.

■ Net debt less than 2.5 times cash profits.

■ Average five-year operating cash conversion of more than 100 per cent or average five-year free cash conversion of more than 90 per cent.

Additional filter

■ Top 10 out of the 50 lowest-CAPE shares (excluding shares with suspiciously low CAPEs of 3 or less) are selected based on their combined ranking for CAPE and five-year average return on capital employed.

CAPE stands for cyclically adjusted PE ratio. It compares share price with average 10 year EPS to try to get an impression of earnings over an entire business cycle.

 

The stocks

An abridged version of this year’s 60 stocks is included in the table below. Lots more fundamental data and forecasts can be found in the downloadable excel version of the table here:

SCREENTEST FAILEDNameTIDMMkt CapNet Cash / Debt(-)*PriceFwd PE (+12mths)Fwd DY (+12mths)FCF yld (+12mths)EV/SalesCAPEPEGROCEFwd EPS grth NTMFwd EPS grth STM3-mth Mom12-mth Fwd EPS change%
GRT EXP/Best of the Best plcBOTB£49mn£5mn580p101.2%-1.619.7--11%9%41.5%35.5%
GRT EXP/M&C Saatchi plcSAA£229mn-£15mn188p101.8%9.9%0.5-0.520.8%26%14%27.0%62.5%
GRT EXP/Senior plcSNR£634mn-£179mn151p211.4%-1.024.50.85.0%50%41%19.1%82.1%
GRT EXP/Rolls-Royce Holdings plcRR£12,486mn-£3,196mn149p280.2%5.7%1.2-0.396.9%107%44%63.8%19.3%
GRT EXP/Franchise Brands plcFRAN£305mn£5mn234p251.0%3.7%2.988.43.113.8%11%9%22.2%30.9%
GRT EXP/Informa PlcINF£9,720mn-£85mn693p182.1%6.6%4.6133.4-2.6%35%20%12.9%55.5%
GRT EXP/Flutter Entertainment PlcFLTR£24,872mn-£3,754mn14,120p330.4%3.2%3.8137.7-0.8%82%44%22.3%18.2%
GRT EXP/InterContinental Hotels Group PLCIHG£9,339mn-£1,535mn5,332p192.4%5.1%3.634.11.848.8%18%14%12.1%40.4%
GRT EXP/Coca-Cola HBC AGCCH£8,049mn-£1,453mn2,194p143.4%-1.224.2-12.4%37%12%12.5%33.7%
GRT EXP/Melrose Industries PLCMRO£6,250mn-£1,507mn154p142.1%3.4%1.1---3.1%41%33%18.4%19.5%
BIG REL/5y EPS Grth/AstraZeneca PLCAZN£170,110mn-£18,977mn10,976p182.3%4.4%5.384.33.17.7%11%18%-2.9%17.9%
BIG REL/5y EPS Grth/GSK plcGSK£58,893mn-£13,110mn1,438p104.0%9.2%2.410.60.218.9%27%7%-1.1%23.1%
BIG REL/5y EPS Grth/RELX PLCREL£49,649mn-£6,396mn2,605p232.2%4.5%6.640.02.823.8%10%10%12.9%13.2%
BIG REL/5y EPS Grth/Compass Group PLCCPG£35,073mn-£2,894mn2,008p222.3%3.8%1.540.31.314.5%24%13%3.8%39.6%
BIG REL/5y EPS Grth/CRH public limited companyCRH£30,704mn-£4,172mn4,129p132.7%8.1%1.428.51.012.5%10%12%26.1%29.3%
BIG REL/5y EPS Grth/BAE Systems plcBA£29,257mn-£3,499mn958p163.1%5.1%1.628.43.012.5%7%9%11.2%17.9%
BIG REL/5y EPS Grth/Experian PLCEXPN£24,442mn-£3,418mn2,659p221.9%4.5%5.546.03.518.5%8%10%-5.5%12.2%
BIG REL/5y EPS Grth/Antofagasta plcANTO£15,148mn-£736mn1,537p252.5%2.4%3.932.10.615.2%21%15%0.0%-28.2%
BIG REL/5y EPS Grth/Rentokil Initial plcRTO£14,117mn-£3,225mn560p231.4%3.4%3.950.83.75.4%10%15%8.9%23.0%
BIG REL/5y EPS Grth/Burberry Group plcBRBY£8,964mn-£496mn2,370p192.6%5.9%3.333.11.317.3%9%10%17.4%25.1%
NEFF/Macfarlane Group PLCMACF£165mn-£38mn105p93.5%12.9%0.718.30.914.9%15%4%-1.4%4.0%
NEFF/Renew Holdings plcRNWH£533mn£6mn673p112.8%7.1%0.630.31.529.6%9%1%-5.2%8.2%
NEFF/Watches of Switzerland Group PLCWOSG£1,816mn-£428mn758p13-9.5%1.688.00.819.4%11%14%-7.4%12.4%
NEFF/QinetiQ Group plcQQ£1,926mn£197mn333p122.5%6.2%1.224.70.611.8%12%8%-9.0%18.9%
NEFF/Record plcREC£166mn£17mn83p145.5%-3.628.30.739.1%-2%17%-11.5%19.6%
NEFF/iEnergizer LimitedIBPO£668mn-£81mn352p97.9%-3.329.21.142.5%18%15%-16.3%-
NEFF/HY EPS grth/Kitwave Group PLCKITW£186mn-£44mn265p104.2%-0.561.20.818.2%18%4%38.0%60.9%
NEFF/Av FY2 Fwd EPS growth > 7.5%Breedon Group PLCBREE£1,225mn-£198mn72p123.2%7.0%1.021.3-11.3%-5%7%17.4%-2.5%
NEFF/HY EPS grth/Ashtead Group plcAHT£22,389mn-£7,163mn5,104p151.7%1.8%3.942.51.016.7%14%11%8.0%32.4%
NEFF/HY EPS grth/Severfield PlcSFR£191mn-£25mn62p75.8%-0.523.41.19.6%4%6%3.0%1.7%
SAFE YLD/iEnergizer LimitedIBPO£668mn-£81mn352p97.9%-3.329.21.142.5%18%15%-16.3%-
SAFE YLD/Telecom Plus PLCTEP£1,525mn-£20mn1,920p184.8%3.6%1.346.71.016.2%12%17%-13.3%57.7%
SAFE YLD/Pan African Resources PLCPAF£336mn-£42mn15p45.8%1.3%1.213.72.630.2%2%9%-9.5%-19.9%
SAFE YLD/Div grth/Imperial Brands PLCIMB£17,775mn-£8,405mn1,920p67.9%-1.612.71.021.2%10%8%-8.2%21.7%
SAFE YLD/Div grth/GSK plcGSK£58,893mn-£13,110mn1,438p104.0%9.2%2.410.60.218.9%27%7%-1.1%23.1%
SAFE YLD/Div grth/Foresight Group Holdings Ltd.FSG£477mn£19mn410p115.4%11.0%4.422.00.442.3%9%14%-9.3%32.3%
SAFE YLD/Beta/Moneysupermarket.com Group plcMONY£1,305mn-£27mn243p165.0%7.1%3.519.52.332.6%6%13%27.5%12.8%
SAFE YLD/Beta/IG Group Holdings plcIGG£2,913mn£689mn707p76.7%34.2%2.212.43.427.0%2%6%-10.1%7.6%
SAFE YLD/EPS grth/M.P. Evans Group PLCMPE£455mn£28mn842p105.1%8.6%1.721.0-21.1%-17%10%4.0%-9.5%
SAFE YLD/Mkt Cap/Macfarlane Group PLCMACF£165mn-£38mn105p93.5%12.9%0.718.30.914.9%15%4%-1.4%4.0%
EV/SALES/Vistry Group PLCVTY£2,534mn£32mn733p86.6%3.1%0.69.4-9.5%-29%-1%18.5%-36.0%
EV/SALES/Fwd sales grth/TwentyFour Income Fund Ltd GBPTFIF£722mn£632mn101p---0.212.7-5.5%--2.1%-
EV/SALES/Sales grth/Serica Energy PLCSQZ£601mn£258mn220p27.6%31.7%0.532.30.0159.9%-13%-14%-15.1%-22.1%
EV/SALES/Fwd sales grth/Harbour Energy PlcHBR£2,168mn-£1,232mn260p37.9%39.1%0.8--70.0%368%18%-16.4%-16.0%
EV/SALES/Fwd sales grth/Kenmare Resources PlcKMR£437mn£23mn461p47.7%33.7%1.0--21.2%-22%-32%8.9%6.3%
EV/SALES/Fwd sales grth/Petra Diamonds LimitedPDL£141mn-£96mn73p11-15.8%0.6--19.3%-40%121%-26.4%-36.0%
EV/SALES/5y Op Marg/Severfield PlcSFR£191mn-£25mn62p75.8%-0.523.41.19.6%4%6%3.0%1.7%
EV/SALES/5y Op Marg/SThree plcSTEM£598mn£32mn445p113.7%4.8%0.319.62.539.3%2%12%11.2%20.1%
EV/SALES/Fwd sales growth/Smurfit Kappa Group PlcSKG£7,687mn-£2,655mn2,955p104.4%-0.923.3-19.4%-18%-1%-3.3%7.3%
EV/SALES/5y Op Marg/MITIE Group PLCMTO£1,126mn-£85mn83p103.1%7.6%0.3133.5-19.3%13%3%5.9%26.9%
CAPE/Strix Group PLCKETL£213mn-£64mn98p86.7%-2.38.2-36.5%7%13%14.4%-25.4%
CAPE/PayPoint plcPAY£335mn-£23mn462p89.1%-2.38.81.936.6%6%3%-7.3%4.9%
CAPE/Ninety One PlcN91£1,127mn£265mn181p126.8%-1.810.8-62.3%-7%8%-3.2%-19.3%
CAPE/Halfords Group PlcHFD£393mn-£336mn180p104.4%9.3%0.56.6-12.3%-8%16%-8.9%-45.6%
CAPE/Mondi plcMNDI£6,351mn-£888mn1,308p114.6%-1.010.4-19.7%-25%4%-7.6%-13.5%
CAPE/Lookers plcLOOK£316mn-£68mn82p74.2%-0.19.6-14.7%-22%10%7.6%12.4%
CAPE/International Distributions Services plcIDS£2,200mn-£1,392mn230p304.0%-2.5%0.35.1-9.6%-230%10.7%-87.2%
CAPE/Vertu Motors PLCVTU£218mn-£67mn62p63.9%-0.111.0-18.3%15%9%20.2%35.0%
CAPE/IG Group Holdings plcIGG£2,913mn£689mn707p76.7%34.2%2.212.43.427.0%2%6%-10.1%7.6%
CAPE/Anglo-Eastern Plantations PlcAEP£337mn£203mn851p---0.612.8-28.3%--10.5%-
Source: FactSet; * FX converted to £; NTM = next twelve months / STM = second twelve month period