It's that time again. House prices have only just started to register modest increases again, but predictions about the next crash are already starting to come in.
One theory, elaborated by economist Fred Harrison in his book The Power in the Land, is that the economy follows an 18-year cycle and embedded within this is a 14-year property cycle. The book The Secret Wealth Advantage by Akhil Patel starts from a similar premise. Beginning with affordable house prices, the cycle passes through a mid-cycle ninth-year downturn before surging to a peak by the end of the 14 years. Then it all comes crashing down.
The underlying force behind these price rises is land, given we have a finite supply of it. As prices rise, speculation on land increases, thus holding back supply while demand continues unchecked. This leads to a peak which ends with money being sucked into paying rent and away from the productive economy, thus leading to the crash.