BHP (BHP) wants to buy Anglo American (AAL). Well, sort of. Or at least, parts of Anglo. If some quite complex conditions are met. And at a price that Anglo’s board or shareholders were never likely to agree to.
Around a week into this thing, the picture ahead is about as clear as a tailings dam. As of 30 April, no one can really say if we’ve just watched the first episode in a four-series drama, or a pilot that’s already been cancelled. Perhaps, in a week’s time, with pulses lowered and a few concessions and assurances made, BHP will simply add £5 a share to get things over the line.
We can but speculate. And indeed speculation – or at least thinking through what might come next – is what Anglo investors must now do. BHP’s approach has upended the investment case, and new rules now apply. So while Anglo’s advice is for shareholders to do nothing, with events only partly in their control, there is no harm in sketching the decision tree now taking root.